Oil Goes Up a Dollar a Day from Now On - OK ???

$100 ... 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115 ...

At this rate, we'll be well into in the upper 300s for a barrel by the end of 2008. That alright with you? Still interested in who's taking the early lead in the American League East? Who's looking hot on American Idol? Which Democratic candidate dodged the MSM People Magazine-esque questions more successfully tonight? Still want more horses under that hood?

I'm writing from Harrisburg, PA tonight where the price of a gallon of gas is $3.35 and diesel is well over 4 bucks. The Renewable Energy technology advocate in me is ecstatic. But this kind of a price climb scares me. This isn't how it's supposed to play out. It can't keep going up like this, right? Right ???

Military Stung by High Cost of Fuel (Just like the regular folks)

No matter what the current administration says, no one would argue that our military is fighting in Iraq, at least in part, to protect US oil interests. That's why it's somewhere between ironic and outright painful that high fuel costs are impairing DOD's ability to fight (and build a nation) effectively, by taking funds that might be better spent on other supplies. This article breaks out some of the details.

Each M-1 Abrams tank requires a substantial support convoy of tankers and maintenance trucks, all of which are burning gas at a amazing clip. Check out these stats from AP:

• Overall, the military consumes about 1.2 million barrels, or more than 50 million gallons of fuel, each month in Iraq at an average $127.68 a barrel. That works out to about $153 million a month

• In WWII, the average fuel consumption per soldier or Marine was about 1.67 gallons a day; in Iraq, it's 27.3 gallons
  

Lastly, if you want to see the organization that's running this energy show for the DOD, go to the Defense Energy Support Center's home page. They are a subsidiary organization of the Defense Logistics Agency based south of DC in Fort Belvoir, VA.

Ain't No Oil Price High Enough

Holy Moly Batman, we're over a $104 dollars a barrel. Historically adjusted for inflation, this is the most oil has ever cost in the world ... in the history of mankind ... in the history of history. Of course, it's still much less than a good malbec.

Anyway, as the NYT reports today, this price sure is stirring up a lot of action, both on the good side (renewables R&D) and the evil sides (Exxon pledged greatly increased exploration and development of new oil resources today ... cause it would be worth it !)

Despite the pain this blogger feels at the pump, if this is what it takes to get us: a Tesla, an Aptera, a Volt and the Automotive X Prize, then I say, standing proudly on my own carrier deck of justice, "Bring it On !!!" How about $200 a barrel? How about a million bucks? Then we could call oil a collectible, or make jewelry out of it, and drive our cars and economy with wind, sun or nuclear-boosted electrons instead.

Oil Closed over $100 a Barrel Yesterday

This is a new milestone. As reported here, it's been over a couple of times in recent months, but this is the first time a day has ended with oil in triple digits. Some publications are forecasting $4 a gallon gas in the US this summer. Please hurry up Auto X Prizers !!!

Space Truck'n

This GreenBiz feature article provides a nice walk through of how several companies, including Walmart (guided by REI) have shaved big percentage points off their truck fleets' diesel expenses and emissions over the past few years. Small changes are the rule: better tires, better aerodynamics, GPS and better routing and scheduling. To me, the most innovative yet simple mod is the addition of the aptly named Auxiliary Power Unit (APU). The APU is a small generator that gives the itinerant trucker the power he/she needs to simulate home on the road. In other words, electricity to power air conditioning, heaters, small appliances and killer stereos without having to idle the big diesel engine all night. Word is the APUs consume on average 1/10th the power of the main engine, saving not only fuel costs and emissions, but wear and tear on those expensive engines as well. It's a win-win-win-win-win. Or something like that. You've got to check it out.

Give Me a Tax Break

On the pages of this morning's edition of the Dallas Morning News, the interesting juxtaposition of these two articles:

• Exxon profits break records again


• Turning green, Experts say help is needed to boost clean energy industry

The Exxon article notes they "didn't produce as much oil this year as last, but the company's prouduct fetched a much higher price." To the extent this trend continues on constrained supply and burgeoning demand, subsidies and other forms of help for the industry can be drawn down.

The other article highlights a wind turbine blade manufacturing company setting up shop in Iowa to take advantage of the skilled workforce from a recently closed Maytag factory, and the thousands of "green collar jobs" that might be created here in America.

The irony and the urgency is the fledgling renewables industry living on nervous borrowed time as its Production Tax Credits get ready to expire, while oil's tax breaks continue in place, even as it experiences record profits.

Oil should be allowed to profit unfettered as is the American Way, but it doesn't need help from taxpayers.

Wall Street Journal on Why We Must Move Quickly @ $100 Oil

It's all here. Every problem you can possibly imagine is wrapped up in what's been going on with oil since 2000 or so. US economic decline, climate degradation, heightening international tensions and a steep drop in US prestige and power in the world. If anyone can help, in any way, now would be a damned good time to get started. Here's the comprehensive WSJ article from the cover this morning.

The $100 Question

This would be a good time, then, to take a look at Robert Hirsch's 2005 report for the Department of Energy, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management.

It opens with this bold statement: "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem." If real, peak oil does represent an unprecedented challenge for a society thoroughly dependent on (a society whose foundation is) oil.

A vexing aspect is that peak oil is a risk, not a certainty. There isn't concensus that it is real. If it is real, it's hard to agree when it will, or did, occur. The report makes the case that the downside to doing something if "peaking is long delayed" is that we will mitigate prematurely. The flip side (failure to mitigate) has much heftier consequences.

Oil was $25 a barrel in 2003. It is $100 in 2008.

Oil Over $100 Today

This is a first in the history of black gold, Texas tea. Old Jed would be a billionaire at these prices. Note: oil hit $99 a barrel on November 21 and had backed down until now.

Oil Drops Below $88 a Barrel Today

This is good news ... and bad news ... depending on which game you're playing.

Chevron CEO Says Oil to Remain Dominant for Decades

Chevron CEO O'Reilly says, love it or hate it - the world is going to keep running on oil for a long, long time. I think he's old school and may be like a one of those guys in the early 1900s, perhaps a CEO of a company that made horse drawn buggies, who couldn't foresee the enormous changes coming in that century, as early as the 20s and 30s. You know ... cars, planes, etc.

Still, you have to admit he's got a great vantage from which to view the global economy and energy markets, even if his big oil CEO cap is screwed on a little too tight. And it bothers me to hear him say this about the mega-freaking-enormous size of current and ever-expanding energy demand. In an interview last week, when asked "Will oil become less important in the future?" Reilly said:

The scale of the energy system is enormous. Forty thousand gallons of oil are consumed every second, and that represents only one-third of the total global energy system. To significantly change the energy mix is a big challenge, and I don't think it's likely to occur anytime soon. Very long term, a century out, maybe 50 years out, with new technology and changes in the capital structure - maybe some changes will occur. But in the next 25 years, it's unlikely there will be significant change.

Here's his full interview from the November 28, 2007 edition of Fortune magazine. I think he's correct for this moment. And maybe for the rest of this decade. But he's not allowing for innovation and the tremendous breakthroughs we're going to see with so many good minds (backed by increasingly large sums of funding) trained on this problem. I really hope he's not right for much longer.

Oil Hit $99 a Barrel Today

With oil this expensive and going higher, so much is possible.

The End of not talking about the End of Oil

I mentioned to my PT blog buddy the other day how we wouldn't need or want to talk about the why's that are the catalysts for talking about new and better forms of power. Said that would all be obvious to anyone thinking about this stuff so by the time they got to this address there'd be no need for persuasion, on that topic of the need at least. So, I'm sorry, but a recent series of articles in the WSJ and Wired have caused me to reverse and link to More Evidence We've Entered the End of Oil here. The point I took away isn't about the fundamental drivers involving rising demand and stagnating if not declining supply. It's about urgency. About how little time may be left to grow up some of these new technologies. You think solar can go large scale in 10 years? How fast can we double or quadruple nuclear capacity? Wind/water ... what else is there that's going to be ready to stand in when oil just isn't dependable any more.